3402 Willow Pond Dr

Riverhead, NY 11901

$599,000B-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,417 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$703
• HOA: −$370
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,775
• Net cashflow: $2,463/mo
• Annual: $29,555/yr
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $590k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $425k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.