3402 Willow Pond Dr · Riverhead, NY 11901

$599,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,417 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2005 $370/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spectacularly updated condo with high end finishes and upgrades throughout. Private backyard with plantings &patio. Enjoy cooking in your updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances custom wooden cabinets & silestone counters. Open floor plan, oak wood floors throughout. Spacious living room with gas fireplace surrounded by marble. Huge master bedroom, ensuite bath, walk in closet with custom cabinets and hanging system. Private deck off master bedroom. All bathrooms have granite vanities. Highly desirable community with private stairs to Sound beach. Enjoy kayaking and paddle boarding in your backyard! See attached list of upgrades..., Additional information: Appearance:Platinum,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• $370 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues $370 monthly; HOA covers grounds care, pool service, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener (1 garage space); No carport
• Utilities: Water available; Sewer available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities; See remarks for additional utilities
• Home design: Condominium; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Fiberglass insulation; Attic: partial with pull-down stairs
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Block construction; Fiberglass insulation; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Open kitchen / Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces); Pets allowed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced-air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Soaking tub; Storage; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $590k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $425k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $590,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $59,972
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $254,913
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,440/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,775
• Net cashflow: $2,463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,334

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Dolphin Way Riverhead, NY	3.0	2.0	1322	$12,000	$9.08	19d	1	0.90mi
13 Linda Ln E Riverhead, NY	3.0	2.0	1544	$4,600	$2.98	4d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $599,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $599,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-25
    historical $599,000
15. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus $425,000
16. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus $425,000
17. 2020-08-07
    historical 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spectacularly updated condo with high end finishes and upgrades throughout. Private backyard with plantings &patio. Enjoy cooking in your updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances custom wooden cabinets & silestone counters. Open floor plan, oak wood floors throughout. Spacious living room with gas fireplace surrounded by marble. Huge master bedroom, ensuite bath, walk in closet with custom cabinets and hanging system. Private deck off master bedroom. All bathrooms have granite vanities. Highly desirable community with private stairs to Sound beach. Enjoy kayaking and paddle boarding in your backyard! See attached list of upgrades..., Additional information: Appearance:Platinum,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

18. 2020-08-07
    soldstatus $425,000 Closed 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spectacularly updated condo with high end finishes and upgrades throughout. Private backyard with plantings &patio. Enjoy cooking in your updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances custom wooden cabinets & silestone counters. Open floor plan, oak wood floors throughout. Spacious living room with gas fireplace surrounded by marble. Huge master bedroom, ensuite bath, walk in closet with custom cabinets and hanging system. Private deck off master bedroom. All bathrooms have granite vanities. Highly desirable community with private stairs to Sound beach. Enjoy kayaking and paddle boarding in your backyard! See attached list of upgrades..., Additional information: Appearance:Platinum,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

19. 2020-06-16
    price $429,000 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spectacularly updated condo with high end finishes and upgrades throughout. Private backyard with plantings &patio. Enjoy cooking in your updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances custom wooden cabinets & silestone counters. Open floor plan, oak wood floors throughout. Spacious living room with gas fireplace surrounded by marble. Huge master bedroom, ensuite bath, walk in closet with custom cabinets and hanging system. Private deck off master bedroom. All bathrooms have granite vanities. Highly desirable community with private stairs to Sound beach. Enjoy kayaking and paddle boarding in your backyard! See attached list of upgrades..., Additional information: Appearance:Platinum,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

20. 2020-06-10
    listed $445,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spectacularly updated condo with high end finishes and upgrades throughout. Private backyard with plantings &patio. Enjoy cooking in your updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances custom wooden cabinets & silestone counters. Open floor plan, oak wood floors throughout. Spacious living room with gas fireplace surrounded by marble. Huge master bedroom, ensuite bath, walk in closet with custom cabinets and hanging system. Private deck off master bedroom. All bathrooms have granite vanities. Highly desirable community with private stairs to Sound beach. Enjoy kayaking and paddle boarding in your backyard! See attached list of upgrades..., Additional information: Appearance:Platinum,ExterioFeatures:Tennis,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,440 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,782 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,342/yr (+$195/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $101,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,440
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,114
• − Management: −$8,114
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $21,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,122
• After-tax cash flow: $24,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+34.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Coming Soon $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Sold (MLS) $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-16 Price Changed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-10 Listed $445,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,440 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.