3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,611 sqft ·
Built 2007
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,178/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,416
Tax + insurance
−$545
HOA
−$15
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$457
Net cashflow
$-256/mo
Annual
$-3,070/yr
Cap rate
5.16%
Cash-on-cash
-4.06%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$75,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (16.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (19.3% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $218k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Creek View El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 476 students, 55% FRL); College Station Middle (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 645 students, 46% FRL); College Station H S (math 78% / reading 61%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,134 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 24% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29