14530 Byron Hwy #43

Byron, CA 94514

$178,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,701/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,293/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $50,092

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,139 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 616% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $179k implies a 894% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.