14530 Byron Hwy #43 · Byron, CA 94514

$178,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 306 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $175k · at est. ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice cozy home located in a family park. Well maintained 2 bdrm, 1.5 bath, with pop out. Huge lot with long driveway, play area and garden. Covered patio. Close to schools. Hurry, won't last long.

Key facts

• Play area
• Renovated outside
• Wood shed

Tags

• RENOVATED INSIDE
• RENOVATED OUTSIDE
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• LARGER LOT
• PLAY AREA
• WOOD SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: no (listed land lease amount present but not included per exclusions)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Single-story (manufactured); Built in 1971; Updated/Remodeled condition
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured (FUQUA make)
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered patio and porch; Storage area (interior/exterior)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,139 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 616% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $179k implies a 894% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.58%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14530 Byron Hwy #44	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (0%)	21mo	$175,500	$219	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $15,848
• Equity at exit: $67,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $63,436
• Equity at exit: $93,915

Cash invested: $50,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94514

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$938
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,684/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $178,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,725
• Closing costs: $5,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,900 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,900 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,900 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,900 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,900 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,900 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $178,900 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,900 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,900 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,900 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $178,900 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,900 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,900 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,900 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,900 Active 288 DOM
16. 2010-10-14
    historical
17. 2010-06-30
    price Price Change
18. 2010-05-04
    listed New
19. 2008-10-27
    soldstatus $18,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Nice cozy home located in a family park. Well maintained 2 bdrm, 1.5 bath, with pop out. Huge lot with long driveway, play area and garden. Covered patio. Close to schools. Hurry, won't last long.

20. 2008-09-24
    historical 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Nice cozy home located in a family park. Well maintained 2 bdrm, 1.5 bath, with pop out. Huge lot with long driveway, play area and garden. Covered patio. Close to schools. Hurry, won't last long.

21. 2008-08-01
    listed $25,000 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Nice cozy home located in a family park. Well maintained 2 bdrm, 1.5 bath, with pop out. Huge lot with long driveway, play area and garden. Covered patio. Close to schools. Hurry, won't last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,021
• − Property taxes: −$2,684
• − Insurance: −$894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$5,204
• Taxable loss: −$1,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $1,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Union High
• NCES district ID: 0621600
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $87,001
• Composite: 50.24/100
• National rank: #4065
• State rank: #320 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Byron

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1139
• US rank: #25729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Byron, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,044

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Current HPI: 157.8151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2010-10-14 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-06-30 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-05-04 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-10-27 Sold (MLS) $18,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-09-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-08-01 Listed $25,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR