4408 W 10th Ave

Gary, IN 46404

$49,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,276 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $1,048/mo
• Annual: $12,580/yr
• Cap rate: 31.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.69%
• DSCR: 5.08
• 1% rule: 3.77%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 32.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,847/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.