4408 W 10th Ave · Gary, IN 46404

$49,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1929 5,881 sqft lot $22/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your ideas and put your own touch on this frame 2 story with 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, dining room, living room, kitchen and unfinished basement.

Key facts

• 5,881 sq ft lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,847/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.69%
• DSCR: 5.08
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,124
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -60.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Porter St	0.46mi	3/1.5	2,250 (-1%)	9mo	$62,000	$28	69
951 Willard St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,446 (+8%)	9mo	$246,000	$101	62
1370 W Baker St	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,176 (-4%)	18mo	$160,000	$74	58
1365 Bigger St	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,200 (-3%)	11mo	$244,000	$111	58
4014 W 11th Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,180 (-4%)	16mo	$186,000	$85	58
1025 Wallace St	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,475 (+9%)	3mo	$178,500	$72	52
730 Hanley St	0.59mi	3/1.0	2,250 (-1%)	20mo	$133,000	$59	52
1528 Hanley St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-7%)	3mo	$226,000	$107	48
1140 Clinton St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,464 (+8%)	4mo	$160,000	$65	43
932 Burr St	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (-8%)	16mo	$125,000	$59	38
1166 Jennings St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,162 (-5%)	19mo	$194,000	$90	37
1172 Ralston St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-11%)	14mo	$200,000	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $68,664
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.88×
• Total profit: $190,497
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46404

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $1,048

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,076	-5% $1,062	+0% $1,048	+5% $1,034	+10% $1,021
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $975	+0% $1,048	+5% $1,121	+10% $1,194
Rate	-1.0pp $1,073	-0.5pp $1,061	base $1,048	+0.5pp $1,036	+1.0pp $1,023

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4429 W 13th Ave Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	8d	1	0.31mi
1348 Waite St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,850	$1.04	0d	1	0.85mi
1368 Waite St Gary, IN	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	0.86mi
1125 Dallas St Gary, IN	2.0	2.5	1872	$2,200	$1.18	0d	1	0.92mi
2157 Marshall Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,295	$0.78	45d	1	1.46mi
373 Taft Pl Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1984	$1,800	$0.91	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $54,900 Active 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Bring your ideas and put your own touch on this frame 2 story with 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, dining room, living room, kitchen and unfinished basement.

17. 2026-02-26
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-26
    historical
19. 2025-12-18
    price $54,900
20. 2025-11-04
    listed $59,900 Active
21. 2025-06-30
    status Pending
22. 2025-06-30
    historical
23. 2025-06-22
    price $75,000
24. 2025-06-06
    price $99,900
25. 2025-06-03
    status Active
26. 2025-04-24
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2025-04-17
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $12,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $9,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,428
• Household income: $42,256
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.76%
• Current HPI: 252.6463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-56.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $54,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $54,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $59,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $75,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $99,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $125,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,605 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.