21903 Chimney Rock Dr Unit A B

Lake California, CA 96022

$395,000F

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,175/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-1,012/mo
• Annual: $-12,141/yr
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.98%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a condo listed at $395k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (44.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#767 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: concrete driveway — Cracks and deterioration