21903 Chimney Rock Dr Unit A B · Lake California, CA 96022

$395,000

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Condo · 43 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice Duplex in Desirable Lake California Community! This is in a great area, close to the store. Start collecting income right away at close of escrow. Both units have long time tenants that would like to stay.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1973
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lake California subdivision; Directions: I-5 to Bowman, left to right on Lake California Dr. to Chimney Rock, right; Cross street: Lake California Driv

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Home design: Residential income property
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Forced air heating; Cooling system present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a condo listed at $395k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (44.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#767 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,464 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.98%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-128,416
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-194,667
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96022

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-1,012

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,455

Max offer price $248,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-739	-5% $-875	+0% $-1,012	+5% $-1,148	+10% $-1,285
Rent	-10% $-1,184	-5% $-1,098	+0% $-1,012	+5% $-926	+10% $-840
Rate	-1.0pp $-813	-0.5pp $-911	base $-1,012	+0.5pp $-1,114	+1.0pp $-1,218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21967 Klamath River Pl Unit A Cottonwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,095	$1.68	22d	1	0.18mi
19959 Indian Tom Dr Cottonwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $395,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $395,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $395,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 212-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$5,925
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$19,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This duplex requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major concrete driveway — Cracks and deterioration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Seal cracks in driveway — Improves safety and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
concrete driveway · Cracks and deterioration	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Seal cracks in driveway — Improves safety and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen Union
• NCES district ID: 0613170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,783
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #4978
• State rank: #226 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake California

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #22243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake California, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,497

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.22%
• Current HPI: 364.3174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $395,000 SAOR