1588 Lincoln Pl

New York, NY 11233

$759,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,980
• Tax + insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-2,154/mo
• Annual: $-25,842/yr
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.16%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $212,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $759k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (50.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (60.5% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($713k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (60.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $76k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $600k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$130k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,997/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 6960% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?