2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,068 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,991/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$943
Tax + insurance
−$581
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$49/mo
Annual
$584/yr
Cap rate
9.46%
Cash-on-cash
11.32%
DSCR
1.50
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$50,372
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($584/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $143k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29