8718 Noble St

Evans Mills, NY 13637

$156,050B

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,454 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $474/mo
• Annual: $5,689/yr
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.02%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $43,694

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $156k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,069 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.