8718 Noble St · Evans Mills, NY 13637

$156,050

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1890 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

For the love of old stone homes! Boasting deep window sills, original hardwood flooring in many areas throughout the home, and a second butlers staircase. This 4 bedroom, 1 bath home offers first floor laundry, and a large 2 story bonus room with loft style ladder access that could be an additional bedroom(s), office, family room, play room, game room. .. with direct acess to the side deck. There is also a full attic, basement and shed for any additional storage you may need. Located conveniently in the Village of Evans Mills, with ample parking and back yard space that gives you the opportunity to enjoy the soothing sights and sounds of Pleasant Creek running through the abutting property.

Key facts

• Large bonus room
• First floor laundry
• Butlers staircase

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• BUTLERS STAIRCASE
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• LOFT STYLE LADDER ACCESS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO SIDE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story frame and stone house; Shingle roof; Existing (previously built) construction
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Dirt driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Convertible bedroom (level not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cedar closets; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Convertible bedroom; Loft; Storm windows with wood frames
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,069 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,687 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.02%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8480 S Main St	0.09mi	5/2.0	2,791 (+14%)	9mo	$190,800	$68	63
8682 Cemetery Rd	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-10%)	5mo	$309,000	$140	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $105,057
• Equity at exit: $129,793

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $283,561
• Equity at exit: $269,165

Cash invested: $43,694 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13637

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,064/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $156,050

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,012
• Closing costs: $4,682
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $156,050 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,050 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,050 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,050 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,050 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,050 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $156,050 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,050 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,050 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,050 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,050 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,050 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,050 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,050 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,050 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $156,050 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-29
    listed $156,050 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,064 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,351 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,741
• − Property taxes: −$2,064
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$4,540
• Taxable income: $3,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$814
• After-tax cash flow: $4,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,599
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4977
• State rank: #502 of 590 in NY

Livability — Evans Mills

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1069
• US rank: #21403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans Mills, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,280

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.04%
• Current HPI: 402.6102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $156,050 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,064 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.