16134 Fitchburg Cir

Pflugerville, TX 78660

$199,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 968 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,694/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-161/mo
• Annual: $-1,933/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#26 in TX, #1,492 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pflugerville ISD (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #421 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windermere El (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 694 students, 54% FRL); Pflugerville Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 815 students, 56% FRL); Pflugerville H S (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,814 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1024 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Pflugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.