16134 Fitchburg Cir · Pflugerville, TX 78660

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 968 sqft · Townhouse public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1983 4,312 sqft lot $207/sqft · 18% below area Est $245k · 18% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Patio
• $19 HOA

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PLENTY OF NATURAL LIGHT
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACK YARD
• PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Windermere HOA; Annual HOA fee of $226 covering common area maintenance; Community mailbox, street lights, sidewalks and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking; 1 covered garage space; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Above-ground utilities; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southwest; Slab foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Built from stone veneer and wood siding; Composition (shingle) roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Level lot; Partial wood fencing in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; In-law floorplan; Laminate counters; Main-level primary bedroom; No interior steps; Open floorplan; Pantry; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Pflugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#26 in TX, #1,492 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pflugerville ISD (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #421 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Windermere El (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 694 students, 54% FRL); Pflugerville Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 815 students, 56% FRL); Pflugerville H S (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,814 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1024 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,370 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,714
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -18.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16046 Stoneham Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	967 (-0%)	10mo	$204,900	$212	86
16034 Stoneham Cir	0.15mi	2/2.5 (-1)	993 (+3%)	2mo	$205,900	$207	80
16050 Stoneham Cir	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	993 (+3%)	12mo	$200,000	$201	74
16012 Windermere Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,051 (+9%)	8mo	$209,795	$200	73
1128 Orchard Park Cir	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	949 (-2%)	13mo	$199,000	$210	70
1224 Orchard Park Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	949 (-2%)	8mo	$169,000	$178	68
16036 Stoneham Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+1%)	22mo	$259,900	$265	68
16325 Edgemere Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+7%)	22mo	$254,900	$246	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,538
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-73,397
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78660

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1024
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,176/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $171,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-48	-5% $-105	+0% $-161	+5% $-218	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-228	+0% $-161	+5% $-94	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-110	base $-161	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16114 Windermere Dr Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,495	$1.45	6d	1	0.06mi
16113 Fitchburg Cir Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,595	$1.48	16d	1	0.08mi
16110 Fitchburg Cir Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,600	$1.52	45d	1	0.09mi
1204 Orchard Park Cir Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,550	$1.50	45d	1	0.29mi
15906 Windermere Dr Pflugerville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1085	$1,650	$1.52	5d	6	0.32mi
15835 Foothill Farms Loop Unit 612 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	750	$1,022	$1.36	45d	1	0.41mi
15835 Foothill Farms Loop Pflugerville, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,826	$1.79	3d	41	0.41mi
1304 Pitcairn Dr Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,595	$1.51	45d	1	0.50mi
16101 White River Blvd Pflugerville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,850	$1.79	3d	11	0.52mi
1306 York Castle Dr Unit B Pflugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,675	$1.59	18d	1	0.54mi
1809 Social Dr Unit 1866 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	949	$1,294	$1.36	4d	1	0.57mi
1809 Social Dr Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,549	$1.52	25d	1	0.58mi
2700 W Pecan St Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,664	$1.57	45d	1	0.65mi
16701 N Heatherwilde Blvd Pflugerville, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1125	$1,622	$1.44	6d	26	0.65mi
1525 Grand Ave Pkwy Pflugerville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,925	$1.87	3d	35	0.70mi
15208 Spring Hill Ln Unit A Pflugerville, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	13d	1	0.88mi
413 Swenson Farms Blvd Pflugerville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$1,685	$1.57	5d	33	1.03mi
1720 Grand Avenue Pkwy Unit 1777 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,281	$1.33	4d	1	1.09mi
1300 Black Locust Dr E Pflugerville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1130	$1,995	$1.76	45d	8	1.20mi
15001 Strathaven Pass Unit 15058 Pflugerville, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,433	$1.30	4d	1	1.23mi
409 E Pflugerville Pkwy Pflugerville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,849	$3.00	12d	32	1.40mi
610 E Wells Branch Pkwy Pflugerville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$2,017	$1.81	4d	37	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $199,999 Active 860-char remark
16. 2016-12-19
    status Pending 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

17. 2016-12-19
    soldstatus Sold 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

18. 2016-12-01
    status Pending - Taking Backups 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

19. 2016-11-26
    status Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

20. 2016-11-23
    status Pending - Taking Backups 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

21. 2016-11-22
    listed $110,000 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This unit an attached condo/duplex. This unit is the Right side. Other unit is 16132 Fitchburg and MLS# 28768860. 3 bed 2 bath with fenced backyard. Garage is attached with separate entrance. Both sides for sale separately. Current tenants paying $1075 each side. This unit's lease is up November. Unit at 16132 is up Feb 17. You can live in one side and rent the other or use this as a great investment property and start with new tenants!FEMA - Unknown

22. 2013-04-29
    soldstatus
23. 2013-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,176 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,176 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,176
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pflugerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834830
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,723
• Composite: 33.99/100
• National rank: #5321
• State rank: #421 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pflugerville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #1492

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pflugerville, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 124,834
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 124,834
• Household income: $113,205
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3347.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 34% Two or more races 19% Black 16% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.36%
• Current HPI: 225.8781
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.03%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+81.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $199,999 Unlock MLS
• 2016-12-19 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-12-19 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-12-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-11-26 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2016-11-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-11-22 Listed $110,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,176 · -18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.