468-725 Standish Buntingville Rd

Janesville, CA 96128

$199,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,487/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.46%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#686 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shaffer Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #925 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shaffer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 207 students, 56% FRL); Lassen High (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 820 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Janesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.