472 S Goodall Ave

Jayton, TX 79528

$109,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $364/mo
• Annual: $4,373/yr
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.33%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,009 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Jayton-Girard ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #116 of 1,141 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.
• Kent County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.