472 S Goodall Ave · Jayton, TX 79528

$109,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1960 0.78 ac lot $54/sqft · 20% below area Est $136k · 20% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom 2 bath home is located in the highly acclaimed Jayton-Girard ISD. It is 0ver 2000 square feet and includes almost 1 acre (10 lots) of land. The home has a shop and pens for show animals. Plenty of space to garden, roam or add an RV park!! Lots of potential!!

Key facts

• Shop and pens
• Space to garden
• Space to roam

Tags

• ALMOST 1 ACRE
• SHOP AND PENS
• SPACE TO GARDEN
• SPACE TO ROAM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,009 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Jayton-Girard ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #116 of 1,141 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Kent County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.33%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,574
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -19.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 N Main St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,785 (-12%)	3mo	$139,900	$78	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $36,347
• Equity at exit: $49,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $96,881
• Equity at exit: $75,532

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79528

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,299/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $109,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 2 bath home is located in the highly acclaimed Jayton-Girard ISD. It is 0ver 2000 square feet and includes almost 1 acre (10 lots) of land. The home has a shop and pens for show animals. Plenty of space to garden, roam or add an RV park!! Lots of potential!!

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $120,000 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 2 bath home is located in the highly acclaimed Jayton-Girard ISD. It is 0ver 2000 square feet and includes almost 1 acre (10 lots) of land. The home has a shop and pens for show animals. Plenty of space to garden, roam or add an RV park!! Lots of potential!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,299 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$696/yr (+$58/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,299
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $2,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jayton-Girard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824660
• Math proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,625
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #2972
• State rank: #116 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Jayton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1009
• US rank: #17935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jayton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 568

Population outlook (Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 767 people
• By 2030: 777 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 753 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 732 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 750 · -2.2%
• By 2100: 794 · +3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 2% Hungarian 1%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Kent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.4) · D 11.2% · R 87.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -76.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.4 2020: R+78.8 2016: R+69.5 2012: R+66.3 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $109,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $120,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,299 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.