60 Fern Cir

Winchendon, MA 03447

$100,000A

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 783 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$154
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $562/mo
• Annual: $6,748/yr
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.10%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#125 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Monadnock Regional School District (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #82 of 98 in NH (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $100k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.2% in Winchendon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.