316 Circulo Durango

Rohnert Park, CA 94928

$160,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $802/mo
• Annual: $9,628/yr
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.49%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#116 in CA, #4,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #205 of 517 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 558 students, 32% FRL); Lawrence E. Jones Middle (791 students, 28% FRL); Rancho Cotate High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,611 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.9% in Rohnert Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.