316 Circulo Durango · Rohnert Park, CA 94928

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Built 1977 $200/sqft · at area comps Est $165k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Rancho Grande Lifestyle! With walking paths throughout the park & alongside the creeks, huge greenbelt with BBQ area and pool. Located in the top park in the area, this super cute bungalow style home has views of the perimeter greenbelt area. Kitchen has been partially remodeled and DW & disposal replaced 2/26. Front door is ramped for easy access and the freestanding wood stove creates a warm and cozy feeling inside. This home and park are waiting for you!

Key facts

• Ramped front door
• Bungalow style home
• Parking

Tags

• BUNGALOW STYLE HOME
• PARTIALLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• RAMPED FRONT DOOR
• FREESTANDING WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.9% in Rohnert Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#116 in CA, #4,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #205 of 517 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.49%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,685
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Circulo Durango	0.00mi	2/2.0	800 (0%)	0mo	$160,000	$200	100
66 Circulo Ylapa	0.24mi	2/2.0	880 (+10%)	21mo	$159,000	$181	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $24,459
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $84,184
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94928

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $913	-5% $858	+0% $802	+5% $747	+10% $692
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $707	+0% $802	+5% $898	+10% $993
Rate	-1.0pp $883	-0.5pp $843	base $802	+0.5pp $761	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4949 Snyder Ln Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,621	$3.36	14d	11	0.28mi
1358 Parkway Dr Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,600	$2.36	15d	1	0.43mi
904 Civic Center Dr Apt 2 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	738	$2,200	$2.98	45d	1	0.52mi
4757 Snyder Ln Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$2,550	$3.54	14d	5	0.56mi
6351 Country Club Dr Rohnert Park, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$2,047	$3.80	15d	2	0.56mi
1350 Oak View Cir Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$3,310	$4.41	14d	8	0.57mi
5425 Snyder Ln Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.77mi
655 Enterprise Dr Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,591	$3.68	15d	15	0.86mi
1440 Southwest Blvd Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	890	$2,249	$2.53	14d	3	0.93mi
1440 Southwest Blvd Apt 27 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,099	$2.21	45d	1	0.93mi
1440 Southwest Blvd Unit 18 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,299	$2.42	15d	1	0.93mi
1329 Southwest Blvd Unit B Rohnert Park, CA	1.0	1.0	591	$1,750	$2.96	45d	1	0.94mi
4999 Fern Pl Rohnert Park, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,900	$2.62	15d	1	1.04mi
1209 Cala Way Rohnert Park, CA	1.0	1.0	615	$2,175	$3.54	15d	1	1.24mi
7272 Camino Colegio Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,500	$2.98	15d	1	1.29mi
1450 E Cotati Ave Unit 23 Rohnert Park, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,945	$2.59	45d	1	1.30mi
100 Avram Ave Rohnert Park, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$2,900	$2.29	4d	1	1.33mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	45d	1	1.36mi
7300 Boris Ct Unit 4 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	24d	1	1.36mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	22d	1	1.36mi
7300 Boris Ct Apt 17 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	24d	1	1.36mi
7300 Boris Ct Unit 4 Rohnert Park, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	45d	1	1.36mi
6930 Commerce Blvd Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	743	$2,300	$3.09	14d	1	1.39mi
1326 E Cotati Ave Rohnert Park, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$2,125	$2.87	15d	2	1.41mi
8244 Windmill Farms Dr Unit 1 Cotati, CA	2.0	1.5	989	$2,400	$2.43	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Active 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Welcome to the Rancho Grande Lifestyle! With walking paths throughout the park & alongside the creeks, huge greenbelt with BBQ area and pool. Located in the top park in the area, this super cute bungalow style home has views of the perimeter greenbelt area. Kitchen has been partially remodeled and DW & disposal replaced 2/26. Front door is ramped for easy access and the freestanding wood stove creates a warm and cozy feeling inside. This home and park are waiting for you!

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Contingent (Show) 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Welcome to the Rancho Grande Lifestyle! With walking paths throughout the park & alongside the creeks, huge greenbelt with BBQ area and pool. Located in the top park in the area, this super cute bungalow style home has views of the perimeter greenbelt area. Kitchen has been partially remodeled and DW & disposal replaced 2/26. Front door is ramped for easy access and the freestanding wood stove creates a warm and cozy feeling inside. This home and park are waiting for you!

3. 2026-03-19
   price $160,000 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Welcome to the Rancho Grande Lifestyle! With walking paths throughout the park & alongside the creeks, huge greenbelt with BBQ area and pool. Located in the top park in the area, this super cute bungalow style home has views of the perimeter greenbelt area. Kitchen has been partially remodeled and DW & disposal replaced 2/26. Front door is ramped for easy access and the freestanding wood stove creates a warm and cozy feeling inside. This home and park are waiting for you!

4. 2026-02-19
   listed $165,000 Active 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Welcome to the Rancho Grande Lifestyle! With walking paths throughout the park & alongside the creeks, huge greenbelt with BBQ area and pool. Located in the top park in the area, this super cute bungalow style home has views of the perimeter greenbelt area. Kitchen has been partially remodeled and DW & disposal replaced 2/26. Front door is ramped for easy access and the freestanding wood stove creates a warm and cozy feeling inside. This home and park are waiting for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $7,529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,807
• After-tax cash flow: $7,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609940
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $60,499
• Composite: 37.42/100
• National rank: #4420
• State rank: #205 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rohnert Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #4166

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rohnert Park, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 46,829
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,829
• Household income: $99,280
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2507.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -628.14%
• Current HPI: 259.9121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $160,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $165,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $76 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.