997 Robbins Cir

Lexington, NC 27292

$169,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,143/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,174/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, employment F.
• Lexington City Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #136 of 178 in NC (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary Global Academy (math 40% / reading 37%, grade F, #750 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 375 students, 99% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #273 of 475 statewide, top 58%, 647 students, 100% FRL); Lexington Senior High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 928 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.