997 Robbins Cir · Lexington, NC 27292

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1998 6,969 sqft lot Est $161k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Cottage! 2 Bedroom, 1 bath, in city Nicely Landscaped, Move in ready. Like New

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Enclosed sunroom
• Own deck

Tags

• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• OWN DECK
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW OUTLETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in the Robbins Heights subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1998; Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Public water source; Public maintained road; Crawl space foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (appliance listed)
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating fuel
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, employment F.
• Lexington City Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #136 of 178 in NC (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary Global Academy (math 40% / reading 37%, grade F, #750 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 375 students, 99% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #273 of 475 statewide, top 58%, 647 students, 100% FRL); Lexington Senior High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 928 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,308 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Harrington Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	920 (+0%)	10mo	$155,000	$168	69
617 Hargrave St	0.36mi	2/1.0	832 (-9%)	2mo	$140,000	$168	66
603 Oak Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	970 (+6%)	7mo	$102,200	$105	53
404 Carolina Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	889 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$225	52
706 Ford St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+12%)	12mo	$110,000	$107	51
401 Woodsway Dr	0.75mi	2/1.0	947 (+3%)	12mo	$175,000	$185	50
408 Beckner St	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+14%)	3mo	$184,000	$175	43
212 Mendota Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,037 (+13%)	2mo	$75,000	$72	42
198 Raeford Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,018 (+11%)	4mo	$165,900	$163	42
415 Dixie St	0.62mi	2/1.0	814 (-11%)	14mo	$155,000	$190	40
5 Crutchfield Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	780 (-15%)	8mo	$175,000	$224	33
303 E 5th Avenue Ext	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	819 (-11%)	12mo	$165,000	$201	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-35,695
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-46,794
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27292

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $152,620

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-50	+0% $-98	+5% $-146	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-143	+0% $-98	+5% $-53	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-55	base $-98	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Robbins Cir Lexington, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	16d	1	0.03mi
519 Leonford St Lexington, NC	2.0	1.0	867	$1,000	$1.15	25d	1	0.72mi
301 Williamson St Unit B Lexington, NC	2.0	1.0	896	$1,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.76mi
812 Fairview Dr Apt 450A Lexington, NC	2.0	1.5	976	$1,450	$1.49	25d	1	0.92mi
812 Fairview Dr Apt 200D Lexington, NC	2.0	1.5	976	$1,249	$1.28	23d	1	0.92mi
208 Bookington Dr Unit 214-C Lexington, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	25d	1	1.21mi
420 Salem St Unit H Lexington, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$875	$0.80	21d	1	1.23mi
27 Hege Dr Lexington, NC	1.0	1.0	540	$950	$1.76	16d	1	1.30mi
706 Zane Perkins Dr Lexington, NC	2.0	1.5	700	$1,200	$1.71	21d	1	1.36mi
110 Ridge Mill Cir Unit 517 Lexington, NC	2.0	2.0	864	$1,225	$1.42	25d	1	1.39mi
137 Crest Cir Unit B Lexington, NC	2.0	1.0	855	$1,150	$1.35	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   price $169,900
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $179,900 Active
4. 2026-02-26
   soldstatus $125,000
5. 2016-10-07
   soldstatus $57,500 Sold 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cozy Cottage! 2 Bedroom, 1 bath, in city Nicely Landscaped, Move in ready. Like New

6. 2016-10-07
   soldstatus $57,500

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cozy Cottage! 2 Bedroom, 1 bath, in city Nicely Landscaped, Move in ready. Like New

7. 2016-08-24
   status Due Diligence Period 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cozy Cottage! 2 Bedroom, 1 bath, in city Nicely Landscaped, Move in ready. Like New

8. 2016-08-08
   listed $59,900 Active 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cozy Cottage! 2 Bedroom, 1 bath, in city Nicely Landscaped, Move in ready. Like New

9. 2013-09-17
   soldstatus $20,000 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   Great Opportunity to Purchase Your Home in City of Lexington. Great Location, Close to Everything. Covered Front Porch. For Special Financing and incentives, seller requests potential buyers contact Chase Mortgage Banker. Call the Listing Agent for details.

10. 2013-08-09
    listed $17,820 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Great Opportunity to Purchase Your Home in City of Lexington. Great Location, Close to Everything. Covered Front Porch. For Special Financing and incentives, seller requests potential buyers contact Chase Mortgage Banker. Call the Listing Agent for details.

11. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus $10,000
12. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus $81,000
13. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus $21,000
14. 2000-09-01
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,393 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$924/yr (+$77/mo · 197.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $-152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington City Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702640
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,758
• Composite: 28.2/100
• National rank: #6807
• State rank: #136 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #6051

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, NC
• County: Davidson County · 129,088 people
• City population: 79,578
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 40,311
• Household income: $57,264
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.79%
• Current HPI: 267.074
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1599.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $169,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $179,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Sold (MLS) $57,500 Triad MLS
• 2016-08-24 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2016-08-08 Listed $59,900 Triad MLS
• 2013-09-17 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Triad MLS
• 2013-08-09 Listed $17,820 Triad MLS
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.