270 Pug Rd

Pine Forest, TX 77662

$170,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,664/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $337/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vidor H S (math 56% / reading 40%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,193 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.