270 Pug Rd · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2020 0.84 ac lot $149/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home built in 2021, offering a true turnkey experience. Perfect for first-time buyers or those ready for their next chapter. Located just outside of town, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just under an acre, providing the space and privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to grow. Positioned on one of the higher elevations in the area, this property offers added peace of mind during heavy storms. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on one of the two covered porches. Inside, you’ll find durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas and tile in the bathrooms, ideal for pets, kids, and everyday living. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, and the spacious primary suite features an impressive walk-in closet you won’t want to miss. This home also qualifies for a USDA loan with no down payment for eligible buyers. Well cared for and move-in ready, this home is ready for it's next owners!

Key facts

• Higher elevation
• Large walk-in closet
• Two covered porches

Tags

• HIGHER ELEVATION
• TWO COVERED PORCHES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.84 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12'3" x 12'5"); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 12'3" x 10'1" and 12'4" x 10'0")
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vidor H S (math 56% / reading 40%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 1,193 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,450 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,085
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -57.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,665
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,664
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,392/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $76	+0% $28	+5% $-20	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-38	+0% $28	+5% $94	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $71	base $28	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 W Circle Dr Trlr 16 Vidor, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	15d	1	1.10mi
1205 W Circle Dr Unit 05 Vidor, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,295	$1.06	15d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $170,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-13
   price $170,000 1008-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home built in 2021, offering a true turnkey experience. Perfect for first-time buyers or those ready for their next chapter. Located just outside of town, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just under an acre, providing the space and privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to grow. Positioned on one of the higher elevations in the area, this property offers added peace of mind during heavy storms. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on one of the two covered porches. Inside, you’ll find durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas and tile in the bathrooms, ideal for pets, kids, and everyday living. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, and the spacious primary suite features an impressive walk-in closet you won’t want to miss. This home also qualifies for a USDA loan with no down payment for eligible buyers. Well cared for and move-in ready, this home is ready for it's next owners!

3. 2026-05-13
   listed $170,000 Active 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home built in 2021, offering a true turnkey experience. Perfect for first-time buyers or those ready for their next chapter. Located just outside of town, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just under an acre, providing the space and privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to grow. Positioned on one of the higher elevations in the area, this property offers added peace of mind during heavy storms. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on one of the two covered porches. Inside, you’ll find durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas and tile in the bathrooms, ideal for pets, kids, and everyday living. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, and the spacious primary suite features an impressive walk-in closet you won’t want to miss. This home also qualifies for a USDA loan with no down payment for eligible buyers. Well cared for and move-in ready, this home is ready for it's next owners!

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $180,000 Active 1008-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

   Beautifully maintained home built in 2021, offering a true turnkey experience. Perfect for first-time buyers or those ready for their next chapter. Located just outside of town, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on just under an acre, providing the space and privacy you’ve been looking for with plenty of room to grow. Positioned on one of the higher elevations in the area, this property offers added peace of mind during heavy storms. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on one of the two covered porches. Inside, you’ll find durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas and tile in the bathrooms, ideal for pets, kids, and everyday living. The open-concept layout is both functional and inviting, and the spacious primary suite features an impressive walk-in closet you won’t want to miss. This home also qualifies for a USDA loan with no down payment for eligible buyers. Well cared for and move-in ready, this home is ready for it's next owners!

5. 2021-11-24
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   New construction starter home, with a turn key experience! This is the perfect size home to start off with as a new family and it's outside of town. Want a yard? This property is just under an acre with plenty of space in the back and tons of potential! Raised higher than any house around, you can have peace of mind during major storms. Like to sit on the porch? Guess what, you have two! With upgraded luxury vinyl plank throughout the house and tile in the bathroom, you are covered for pets and kid's uh ohhs. Come check this house out and while you are here notice the master closet! PSSSSTTT this home qualifies for the no down payment USDA home. Ask you agent for more details.

6. 2021-10-12
   listed $155,000

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   New construction starter home, with a turn key experience! This is the perfect size home to start off with as a new family and it's outside of town. Want a yard? This property is just under an acre with plenty of space in the back and tons of potential! Raised higher than any house around, you can have peace of mind during major storms. Like to sit on the porch? Guess what, you have two! With upgraded luxury vinyl plank throughout the house and tile in the bathroom, you are covered for pets and kid's uh ohhs. Come check this house out and while you are here notice the master closet! PSSSSTTT this home qualifies for the no down payment USDA home. Ask you agent for more details.

7. 2018-10-29
   soldstatus
8. 2018-10-04
   listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,392 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$719/yr (+$60/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,392
• − Insurance: −$2,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+385.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $170,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-13 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2021-10-12 Listed $155,000 BBOR
• 2018-10-29 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2018-10-04 Listed $35,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,392 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.