3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
799 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 125 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,542/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$151
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$203/mo
Annual
$2,431/yr
Cap rate
7.77%
Cash-on-cash
5.26%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.5% below list).
It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $40k; list at $165k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FSECPT76EZTJ1W
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29