5686 Mayflower Way #707

Ave Maria, FL 34142

$315,999D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Built 2023 · Condo · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax + insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$793
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-444/mo
• Annual: $-5,325/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $88,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $316k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (24.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $316k).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At $3,199/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?