4 Ray Ln

Loch Sheldrake, NY 12733

$279,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-739/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-739/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $280k implies a 286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.