127 Yawn

Perezville, TX 78572

$60,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $595/mo
• Annual: $7,141/yr
• Cap rate: 18.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.51%
• DSCR: 2.89
• 1% rule: 2.16%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#743 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Henry B Gonzalez El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 490 students, 91% FRL); Ann Richards Middle (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 729 students, 96% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 54% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 6.9% in Perezville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.