158 Baker Ave

Winslow, NJ 08004

$249,900C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $393/mo
• Annual: $4,719/yr
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.74%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $250k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.