10310 Lands End Cir #39

Rotonda, FL 33946

$589,000C-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 179 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$1,450
• HOA: −$525
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,217
• Net cashflow: $-487/mo
• Annual: $-5,844/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $503k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $579k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($518k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $503k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#548 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineland Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 579 students, 45% FRL); L. A. Ainger Middle School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 720 students, 40% FRL); Lemon Bay High School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,360 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 54% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 916 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $156k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Rotonda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.