36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit C33

Carefree, AZ 85377

$600,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Built 2001 · Townhouse · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$448
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-957/mo
• Annual: $-11,488/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.84%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $460k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.