36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit C33 · Carefree, AZ 85377

$600,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · Townhouse · 125 Days on market

Built 2001 9,000 sqft lot $305/sqft · at area comps Est $596k · at est. $448/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT! Location, location, location! This beautiful Sonoran Desert ''fully furnished retreat'' is perfect for those who want to unwind, live with minimal upkeep, and enjoy a peaceful, lock-&-leave lifestyle. This beautiful condo is in pristine condition, comfortable, and the VIEWS of Black Mountain are breathtaking. 2 Bedroom, Den, 3 Bathrooms. This place is Pristine!

Key facts

• $448 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED RETREAT
• LOCK AND LEAVE LIFESTYLE
• VIEWS OF BLACK MOUNTAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,399 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.84%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,694
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: 0.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit B40	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	7mo	$598,000	$304	94
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit D40	0.03mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	8mo	$655,000	$332	92
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit D30	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	10mo	$618,000	$314	92
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit C38	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	11mo	$550,000	$279	91
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit B19	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,970 (0%)	12mo	$610,000	$310	88
36601 N Mule Train Rd N Unit D16	0.26mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	0mo	$644,000	$327	88
36601 N Mule Train Rd N Unit C5	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,970 (0%)	13mo	$740,000	$376	87
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 20D	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,970 (0%)	16mo	$575,000	$292	87
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit D1	0.00mi	2/2.0	2,050 (+4%)	12mo	$640,000	$312	79
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 45B	0.00mi	2/2.5	2,192 (+11%)	4mo	$725,000	$331	76
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 4A	0.00mi	2/2.5	2,216 (+12%)	7mo	$610,000	$275	72
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit B14	0.25mi	2/2.5	2,216 (+12%)	4mo	$650,000	$293	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $117,288
• Equity at exit: $382,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $392,204
• Equity at exit: $697,377

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $9,000/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$448
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,816

Max offer price $461,475

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A32 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,800	$1.93	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit C16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$5,650	$2.87	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B16 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,500	$2.28	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 29C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$3,900	$1.98	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit A5 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1970	$4,950	$2.51	43d	1	0.03mi
36601 Mule Train Rd Unit B20 Carefree, AZ	2.0	3.0	1970	$4,000	$2.03	43d	1	0.03mi
37212 N Tranquil Trl Unit 18 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$4,000	$2.75	11d	1	0.64mi
37210 N Tranquil Trl #13 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$2,860	$2.13	24d	1	0.64mi
7402 E Carefree Dr #201 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,695	$1.37	14d	1	0.83mi
1 Easy St #2 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$4,000	$2.17	3d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #15 Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	1847	$3,650	$1.98	7d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.87mi
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.87mi
7402 Hum Rd Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1737	$2,800	$1.61	22d	1	0.87mi
1725 E Staghorn Ln Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.0	1690	$9,500	$5.62	43d	1	0.89mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$12,000	$3.99	24d	4	1.27mi
7526 E Club Villa Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2557	$7,500	$2.93	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $448 · $5,376/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $600,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $600,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT! Location, location, location! This beautiful Sonoran Desert ''fully furnished retreat'' is perfect for those who want to unwind, live with minimal upkeep, and enjoy a peaceful, lock-&-leave lifestyle. This beautiful condo is in pristine condition, comfortable, and the VIEWS of Black Mountain are breathtaking. 2 Bedroom, Den, 3 Bathrooms. This place is Pristine!

16. 2026-03-13
    price $619,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT! Location, location, location! This beautiful Sonoran Desert ''fully furnished retreat'' is perfect for those who want to unwind, live with minimal upkeep, and enjoy a peaceful, lock-&-leave lifestyle. This beautiful condo is in pristine condition, comfortable, and the VIEWS of Black Mountain are breathtaking. 2 Bedroom, Den, 3 Bathrooms. This place is Pristine!

17. 2026-03-13
    price $629,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT! Location, location, location! This beautiful Sonoran Desert ''fully furnished retreat'' is perfect for those who want to unwind, live with minimal upkeep, and enjoy a peaceful, lock-&-leave lifestyle. This beautiful condo is in pristine condition, comfortable, and the VIEWS of Black Mountain are breathtaking. 2 Bedroom, Den, 3 Bathrooms. This place is Pristine!

18. 2026-02-13
    listed $635,000 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    BIG PRICE ADJUSTMENT! Location, location, location! This beautiful Sonoran Desert ''fully furnished retreat'' is perfect for those who want to unwind, live with minimal upkeep, and enjoy a peaceful, lock-&-leave lifestyle. This beautiful condo is in pristine condition, comfortable, and the VIEWS of Black Mountain are breathtaking. 2 Bedroom, Den, 3 Bathrooms. This place is Pristine!

19. 2026-02-10
    historical
20. 2025-11-13
    listed $650,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$9,000
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,420
• − Management: −$4,420
• − HOA: −$5,376
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$22,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,288
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $600,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $619,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $629,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $635,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $650,000 ARMLS