406 Canyon Rd

Capulin, CO 81124

$107,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$564
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $66/mo
• Annual: $795/yr
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $30,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($743 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#431 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• North Conejos School District No. Re1J (rural): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #33 of 86 in CO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Conejos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Conejos County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.