406 Canyon Rd · Capulin, CO 81124

$107,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2022 3.44 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Off-grid creekside home in a gated San Luis Valley community. The creek runs year round. Two structures: a 30x40' pumice home (partially stuccoed, open floor plan ready for customization) and a 20x30' Amish-built garage. Home features vaulted ceilings, and custom ProVia windows. Property includes a well with new pump and piping, a new septic system which is rated for a two bedroom/ two bathroom house (2022), and a solar panel stand. Excellent private fishing for trout and bordering BLM land. Local contractor's contact info and quotes are available!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pumice home
• Open floor plan

Tags

• OFF-GRID CREEKSIDE HOME
• GATED COMMUNITY
• YEAR ROUND CREEK
• PUMICE HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMISH-BUILT GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Current uses include residential, recreational, single family, and fishing rights; Possible uses include residential, recreational, and fishing rights; Approximately 3.44 acres
• HOA & community: Part of La Jara Creek Acres homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Photovoltaic (solar) power production
• Home design: Single-story home; Stone and stick-built construction
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Creek frontage; Waterfront property; Other structures include garage(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#431 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• North Conejos School District No. Re1J (rural): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #33 of 86 in CO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Conejos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($743 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Conejos County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,825 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $17,186
• Equity at exit: $48,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $55,303
• Equity at exit: $74,493

Cash invested: $30,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81124

• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$564
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,612/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $107,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,875
• Closing costs: $3,225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,500 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $107,500 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,500 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $107,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,500 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,500 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,500 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,500 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,500 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,500 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,500 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $107,500 Active
17. 2026-02-22
    historical
18. 2025-02-20
    listed $132,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥82°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,022
• − Property taxes: −$1,612
• − Insurance: −$538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$983
• − Management: −$983
• − Depreciation: −$3,127
• Taxable loss: −$974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $1,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Conejos School District No. Re1J
• NCES district ID: 0805100
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,238
• Composite: 32.39/100
• National rank: #5732
• State rank: #33 of 86 in CO

Livability — Capulin

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #26686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 332
• Population (ZIP): 332

Population outlook (Conejos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,690 people
• By 2030: 7,358 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 6,576 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 5,778 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 4,221 · -45.1%
• By 2100: 2,619 · -65.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Native American 20% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Dutch 4% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 33% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Conejos

• 2024 margin: R (+17.8) · D 39.6% · R 57.5% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.9pp · 2024: -17.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.8 2020: R+7.5 2016: R+3.3 2012: D+9.6 2008: D+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $107,500 cren
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — cren
• 2025-02-20 Listed $132,500 cren