5179 State Highway 41

Smithville Flats, NY 13841

$144,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-239/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-239/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene Central School District (rural): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #282 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.