5179 State Highway 41 · Smithville Flats, NY 13841

$144,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1999 1.45 ac lot Est $151k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained double wide features newer laminate flooring throughout except 3 bedrooms that will be getting new carpeting, wood burning fireplace, an open floor plan, front entry, back entry and mud room entry into the laundry room, master bedroom features a walk in closet, master bathroom with a stand up shower and large garden tub. This expansive property features access to the Genegantslet Creek, well known for great trout fishing as well as walleye, pickerel, and smallmouth bass. Located very close to Long Pond State Forest, Genegantslet State Forest and Five Streams State Forest for hunting, hiking, snowmobiling, cross country skiing, and camping. Easy access to Raymond Corporation

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk in closet
• Stand up shower

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• STAND UP SHOWER
• LARGE GARDEN TUB
• ACCESS TO GENEGANTSLET CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-239/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene Central School District (rural): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #282 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $131,859 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Round Pond Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$151,000	$96	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $31,205
• Equity at exit: $81,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $96,184
• Equity at exit: $138,894

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13841

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,069/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $141,379

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $21	+0% $-20	+5% $-61	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-77	+0% $-20	+5% $37	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $17	base $-20	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-01
   price $144,900
3. 2025-12-10
   price $149,900
4. 2025-11-23
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,069 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,069 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$4,069
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$621
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612750
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,876
• Composite: 48.86/100
• National rank: #2084
• State rank: #282 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithville Flats

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #22950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville Flats, NY
• Population (ZIP): 394

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Current HPI: 177.5199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $144,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $155,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,069 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.