9871 E South Bend Dr

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$1,390,000D-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,114 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,028/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,289
• Tax + insurance: −$950
• HOA: −$415
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,266
• Net cashflow: $-3,892/mo
• Annual: $-46,706/yr
• Cap rate: 2.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.00%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $389,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-47k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $702k (49.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $603k (56.6% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $603k (56.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; list at $1.39M implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$141k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,028/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($141k/yr) (locally 1034% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.