9871 E South Bend Dr · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$1,390,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2009 7,830 sqft lot $446/sqft · 11% below area Est $1569k · 11% under $415/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ground-Floor Primary Bedroom - Corner Premium Lot - Loft & Den - Windgate Ranch. This 3,114 SF 4-bedroom home plus loft and den sits on a premium corner lot with only one neighbor. The primary suite and 4th bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while upstairs offers a spacious loft, two additional bedrooms, full bath, and a tucked-away den flex space. The large kitchen features a gas range, double ovens, walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry for storage. The roof replaced in 2024 and one of HVAC's replaced in 2022. Windgate Ranch offers top-tier community amenities including a clubhouse, resort-style pools, and parks with tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. This is your chance to enjoy both space and lifestyle in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Community amenities
• Large kitchen

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• DOUBLE OVENS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-47k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $702k (49.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $603k (56.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $603k (56.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,028/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($141k/yr) (locally 1034% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $88k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $78k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$141k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $600k; list at $1.39M implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $602,848 (56.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.00%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 19.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,568,526
• List price: $1,390,000
• Delta: -11.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9946 E Cactus Trl	0.11mi	4/3.0	3,166 (+2%)	4mo	$1,540,000	$486	85
17319 N 98th Pl	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,166 (+2%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$537	82
9778 E Desert Jewel Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	3,165 (+2%)	4mo	$1,925,000	$608	82
10018 E Ridgerunner Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,952 (-5%)	1mo	$1,465,000	$496	75
9877 E Bahia Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,264 (+5%)	2mo	$935,000	$286	68
10043 E Hillside Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,784 (-11%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$449	66
10062 E South Bend Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,349 (+8%)	2mo	$1,360,000	$406	66
17651 N 98th Way	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,792 (-10%)	4mo	$1,725,000	$618	62
9901 E Bahia Dr	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,374 (+8%)	3mo	$937,000	$278	57
10358 E Bahia Dr	0.66mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,933 (-6%)	2mo	$1,350,000	$460	50
10304 E Acacia Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,770 (-11%)	3mo	$1,150,000	$415	45
17967 N 95th St	0.68mi	4/3.5	3,580 (+15%)	3mo	$2,875,000	$803	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $131,900
• Equity at exit: $842,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $608,426
• Equity at exit: $1,500,565

Cash invested: $389,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 19.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,289
• Tax from tax record: −$371 /mo · $4,454/yr
• Insurance: −$579
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,266
• Net cashflow: $-3,892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,955

Max offer price $702,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,105	-5% $-3,499	+0% $-3,892	+5% $-4,286	+10% $-4,679
Rent	-10% $-4,368	-5% $-4,130	+0% $-3,892	+5% $-3,654	+10% $-3,416
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,192	-0.5pp $-3,539	base $-3,892	+0.5pp $-4,252	+1.0pp $-4,619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $347,500
• Closing costs: $41,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9726 E South Bend Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2274	$5,900	$2.59	21d	1	0.14mi
9818 E Edgestone Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	3349	$7,400	$2.21	25d	1	0.26mi
16457 N 103rd Pl Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	3.5	3462	$6,500	$1.88	25d	1	0.70mi
10335 E Rosemary Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2367	$4,200	$1.77	20d	1	0.72mi
9481 E Trailside Vw Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3397	$6,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.84mi
9353 E Via de Vaquero Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2769	$4,955	$1.79	5d	1	0.85mi
16580 N 92nd St #2004 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2459	$6,000	$2.44	44d	1	0.93mi
9250 E Via de Vaquero Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	3340	$12,500	$3.74	44d	1	1.01mi
9265 E Canyon View Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2696	$4,995	$1.85	44d	1	1.01mi
10655 E Acacia Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2478	$4,000	$1.61	12d	1	1.02mi
18388 N 93rd Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2780	$9,500	$3.42	21d	1	1.06mi
10620 E Tierra Buena Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2818	$4,500	$1.60	12d	1	1.18mi
16715 N 108th Way Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$20,000	$6.45	25d	1	1.27mi
10458 E Karen Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2200	$12,000	$5.45	44d	1	1.32mi
16589 N 109th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2835	$12,500	$4.41	25d	1	1.34mi
10940 E Cosmos Cir Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	4.5	4065	$8,995	$2.21	25d	1	1.41mi
15255 N 105th Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2285	$9,500	$4.16	25d	1	1.42mi
19047 N 91st Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2198	$15,100	$6.87	0d	1	1.45mi
9018 E Caribbean Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2220	$3,700	$1.67	25d	1	1.47mi
10602 E Blanche Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	4.5	2823	$11,000	$3.90	25d	1	1.48mi
14862 N 103rd St Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2132	$3,200	$1.50	12d	1	1.49mi
9440 E Palm Tree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2242	$3,695	$1.65	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-24
   price $1,390,000 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Ground-Floor Primary Bedroom - Corner Premium Lot - Loft & Den - Windgate Ranch. This 3,114 SF 4-bedroom home plus loft and den sits on a premium corner lot with only one neighbor. The primary suite and 4th bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while upstairs offers a spacious loft, two additional bedrooms, full bath, and a tucked-away den flex space. The large kitchen features a gas range, double ovens, walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry for storage. The roof replaced in 2024 and one of HVAC's replaced in 2022. Windgate Ranch offers top-tier community amenities including a clubhouse, resort-style pools, and parks with tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. This is your chance to enjoy both space and lifestyle in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

2. 2026-04-01
   status Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Ground-Floor Primary Bedroom - Corner Premium Lot - Loft & Den - Windgate Ranch. This 3,114 SF 4-bedroom home plus loft and den sits on a premium corner lot with only one neighbor. The primary suite and 4th bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while upstairs offers a spacious loft, two additional bedrooms, full bath, and a tucked-away den flex space. The large kitchen features a gas range, double ovens, walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry for storage. The roof replaced in 2024 and one of HVAC's replaced in 2022. Windgate Ranch offers top-tier community amenities including a clubhouse, resort-style pools, and parks with tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. This is your chance to enjoy both space and lifestyle in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Ground-Floor Primary Bedroom - Corner Premium Lot - Loft & Den - Windgate Ranch. This 3,114 SF 4-bedroom home plus loft and den sits on a premium corner lot with only one neighbor. The primary suite and 4th bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while upstairs offers a spacious loft, two additional bedrooms, full bath, and a tucked-away den flex space. The large kitchen features a gas range, double ovens, walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry for storage. The roof replaced in 2024 and one of HVAC's replaced in 2022. Windgate Ranch offers top-tier community amenities including a clubhouse, resort-style pools, and parks with tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. This is your chance to enjoy both space and lifestyle in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $1,395,000 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Ground-Floor Primary Bedroom - Corner Premium Lot - Loft & Den - Windgate Ranch. This 3,114 SF 4-bedroom home plus loft and den sits on a premium corner lot with only one neighbor. The primary suite and 4th bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while upstairs offers a spacious loft, two additional bedrooms, full bath, and a tucked-away den flex space. The large kitchen features a gas range, double ovens, walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry for storage. The roof replaced in 2024 and one of HVAC's replaced in 2022. Windgate Ranch offers top-tier community amenities including a clubhouse, resort-style pools, and parks with tennis, pickleball, and basketball courts. This is your chance to enjoy both space and lifestyle in one of North Scottsdale's most desirable communities.

5. 2026-01-03
   historical
6. 2025-11-14
   listed $1,425,000 Active
7. 2014-03-21
   soldstatus $600,000
8. 2013-11-19
   historical
9. 2013-11-03
   price $635,000
10. 2013-09-25
    listed $660,000 Active
11. 2013-09-04
    historical
12. 2013-08-23
    price $680,000
13. 2013-07-30
    price $690,000
14. 2013-07-09
    price $707,000
15. 2013-06-20
    listed $719,000 Active
16. 2010-11-10
    historical
17. 2010-11-03
    price $600,000
18. 2010-10-30
    listed $610,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,454 · $371/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,174 · $764/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,720/yr (+$393/mo · 106.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,862
• − Property taxes: −$4,454
• − Insurance: −$6,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,787
• − Management: −$5,787
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$40,436
• Taxable loss: −$73,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-28,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+127.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $1,390,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $1,395,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $1,425,000 ARMLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-11-03 Price Changed $635,000 ARMLS
• 2013-09-25 Listed $660,000 ARMLS
• 2013-09-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2013-08-23 Price Changed $680,000 ARMLS
• 2013-07-30 Price Changed $690,000 ARMLS
• 2013-07-09 Price Changed $707,000 ARMLS
• 2013-06-20 Listed $719,000 ARMLS
• 2010-11-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-11-03 Price Changed $600,000 ARMLS
• 2010-10-30 Listed $610,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,454 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.