381 E Lake Ave

Fort Sumner, NM 88119

$133,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1945 · Other · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-676/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $37,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-676/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#86 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fort Sumner Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #18 of 95 in NM (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.
• De Baca County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.