381 E Lake Ave · Fort Sumner, NM 88119

$133,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 46 Days on market

Built 1945

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute recently updated 3 bedroom 1 bath house located in Fort Sumner. New windows, central air and heat with a heat pump, flooring, on demand water heater, and kitchen cabinets with countertop. This house has had a total makeover and is ready for its new owner. It also has a workshop/storage building with cement flooring and a new metal roof.

Key facts

• Built 1945
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range hood, Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Dryer, Washer; Range hood, Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $133k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-676/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#86 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fort Sumner Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #18 of 95 in NM (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($920 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• De Baca County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,197 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,015
• Equity at exit: $55,151

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $39,093
• Equity at exit: $81,541

Cash invested: $37,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88119

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,033

Max offer price $123,055

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-19	+0% $-56	+5% $-94	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-94	+0% $-56	+5% $-18	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-22	base $-56	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,250
• Closing costs: $3,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $133,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $133,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $133,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $138,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $138,000 Active 852-char remark
18. 2025-10-31
    price $129,000
19. 2025-08-25
    price $134,000
20. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Super cute recently updated 3 bedroom 1 bath house located in Fort Sumner. New windows, central air and heat with a heat pump, flooring, on demand water heater, and kitchen cabinets with countertop. This house has had a total makeover and is ready for its new owner. It also has a workshop/storage building with cement flooring and a new metal roof.

21. 2022-03-07
    listed $99,500

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Super cute recently updated 3 bedroom 1 bath house located in Fort Sumner. New windows, central air and heat with a heat pump, flooring, on demand water heater, and kitchen cabinets with countertop. This house has had a total makeover and is ready for its new owner. It also has a workshop/storage building with cement flooring and a new metal roof.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,450
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$3,869
• Taxable loss: −$3,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Sumner Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501050
• Math proficiency: 25% —
• Reading proficiency: 50% —
• Median HH income: $33,537
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #10572
• State rank: #18 of 95 in NM

Livability — Fort Sumner

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #16779

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Sumner, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,467

Population outlook (De Baca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,568 people
• By 2030: 1,458 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 1,272 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 1,120 · -28.6%
• By 2075: 815 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 511 · -67.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 31% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · De Baca

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 23.6% · R 74.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+47.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Current HPI: 75.3427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+33.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $133,000 NMMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $138,000 NMMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $129,000 NMMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $134,000 NMMLS
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2022-03-07 Listed $99,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +36.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.