1663 Bristol Caverns Hwy

Bristol, TN 37620

$189,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $351/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $53,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($351/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emmett Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 333 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East High School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #208 of 332 statewide, top 63%, 849 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $190k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.