4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,764 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 107 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,912/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$780
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$612
Net cashflow
$-82/mo
Annual
$-979/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.17%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$83,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-979/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (2.9% below list).
It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Thompson El (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 608 students, 85% FRL); Terry Middle (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,049 students, 82% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 597 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29