2451 Le Conte Ave

Berkeley, CA 94709

$5,750,000C+

None bd · 24.0 ba · 12,756 sqft · Built 1928 · MultiFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $70,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$30,154
• Tax + insurance: −$10,885
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,700
• Net cashflow: $14,261/mo
• Annual: $171,135/yr
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $1,610,000

Investor read

• This is a 24 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $5.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($171k/yr) — positive. Per door: $594/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($70k rent vs $5.75M).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $5.41M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $232k of equity ($40k loan paydown + $192k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $1.61M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$376k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $70,000/mo this rent would consume 943% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 1215% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?