2451 Le Conte Ave · Berkeley, CA 94709

$5,750,000

None bd · 24.0 ba · 12,756 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1928 6,250 sqft lot Est $4082k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 24 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

2451 Le Conte Avenue, is a 24-unit trophy multifamily asset in an irreplaceable Northside Berkeley location, just steps from the UC Berkeley campus. This rare investment offering combines turn-key capital improvements with meaningful rental upside in one of the Bay Area's most enduring and supply-constrained housing markets. The property has benefited from a series of major capital upgrades, including new dual-pane vinyl windows throughout, a complete copper plumbing re-piping, electrical service and subpanel replacements, a new roof, and a voluntary seismic retrofit. These improvements significantly reduce near-term capital expenditure needs and enhance the property's long-term durability,

Key facts

• Sizable studio units
• New roof
• 6,250 sq ft lot

Tags

• NORTHSIDE BERKELEY LOCATION
• TURN-KEY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
• NEW DUAL-PANE VINYL WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• VOLUNTARY SEISMIC RETROFIT
• SIZABLE STUDIO UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 24 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $5.75M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($172k/yr) — positive. Per door: $596/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($70k rent vs $5.75M).
• Recommended offer: $5.41M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $70,044/mo this rent would consume 944% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 1215% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $232k of equity ($40k loan paydown + $192k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $1.61M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$376k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $5,405,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.66%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $4,081,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2466 Virginia St	0.03mi	15/15.0	13,296 (+4%)	1mo	$4,250,000	$320	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.35% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $1,662,425
• Equity at exit: $2,697,869

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $4,450,778
• Equity at exit: $4,247,333

Cash invested: $1,610,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Berkeley: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+78

Original CA rent control city; vacancy rent control after Costa Hawkins limits.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94709

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 164.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $70,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$30,154
• Tax from tax record: −$8,489 /mo · $101,871/yr
• Insurance: −$2,396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$14,709
• Net cashflow: $14,296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $51,948

Max offer price $5,750,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17,551	-5% $15,923	+0% $14,296	+5% $12,669	+10% $11,041
Rent	-10% $8,763	-5% $11,529	+0% $14,296	+5% $17,063	+10% $19,829
Rate	-1.0pp $17,192	-0.5pp $15,758	base $14,296	+0.5pp $12,806	+1.0pp $11,290

24-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 24× units	2	—	$70,032
Total (24 units)			$70,044

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,437,500
• Closing costs: $172,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-03
   soldstatus $5,740,000
2. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-12
   price $5,750,000
4. 2025-10-28
   listed $6,140,000 Active
5. 1989-10-17
   soldstatus $307,000
6. 1983-04-18
   soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $101,871 · $8,489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $101,871 · $8,489/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $840,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$322,089
• − Property taxes: −$101,871
• − Insurance: −$28,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$67,242
• − Management: −$67,242
• − Depreciation: −$167,273
• Taxable income: $86,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,654
• After-tax cash flow: $150,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604740
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,202
• Composite: 57.37/100
• National rank: #2288
• State rank: #175 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Berkeley

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #2860

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berkeley, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 121,632
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,146
• Household income: $89,054
• Rent vs Own: 75.7% rent · 24.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1215.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Chinese 11% Other Indo-European 9% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Current HPI: 291.2313
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1494.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $5,740,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-14 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $5,750,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $6,140,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1989-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $307,000 Public Records
• 1983-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $101,871 · +224.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.