3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,250 sqft ·
Built 1927
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 155 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,440/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$102
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$302
Net cashflow
$564/mo
Annual
$6,767/yr
Cap rate
13.81%
Cash-on-cash
26.85%
DSCR
2.19
1% rule
1.60%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#465 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Brookville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #467 of 627 statewide, top 76%, 187 students, 79% FRL); Gardendale High School (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,047 students, 48% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29