29207 N 258th Ln

Buckeye, AZ 85361

$598,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,040 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,136
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-1,753/mo
• Annual: $-21,031/yr
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.56%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $167,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $598k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (61.9% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (61.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Oasis Elementary School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #434 of 1,109 statewide, top 39%, 572 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $598k implies a 697% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.