29207 N 258th Ln · Buckeye, AZ 85361

$598,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2018 1.11 ac lot $197/sqft · 21% below area Est $762k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A Spacious Adobe Style Retreat Designed for Comfort, Security, and Southwest Living Step into a home that blends generous space, thoughtful upgrades, and peace of mind features. This 3,080 sq. ft. Adobe inspired residence offers room to breathe, room to live, and room to grow -- all on a propertydesigned for privacy, practicality, and the Arizona lifestyle. Property Highlights A Home Built for Comfort • 3080 sq. ft. with 4 large bedrooms and 3 baths (or configure as 3 bedrooms + a dedicated office) • Large rooms throughout -- no cramped, small rooms • Expansive 8×15 master closet • Luxury primary bath featuring a warm water bidet and jetted soaking tub &bull

Key facts

• Warm water bidet
• 2 horse pen
• Hidden safe room

Tags

• HIDDEN SAFE ROOM
• WARM WATER BIDET
• EXTRA INSULATION
• 2X6 EXTERIOR WALLS
• 2 HORSE PEN
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Non-assumable
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 5 covered parking spaces; 6 open parking spaces; 5-car garage; RV access/parking; Circular driveway
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Foam roof; No fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Gravel/stone front; Private maintained road; Gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Laminate countertops; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Bidet; Primary bedroom with full bath; Separate shower and tub; Tub with jets; Laminate counters; Tankless hot water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $598k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (61.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (61.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Oasis Elementary School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #434 of 1,109 statewide, top 39%, 572 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $598k implies a 697% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,944 (61.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.56%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 21.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $762,379
• List price: $598,000
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29415 N 259th Ave	0.06mi	4/4.0	3,199 (+5%)	9mo	$769,000	$240	77
25614 W Melanie Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	3,174 (+4%)	1mo	$1,250,000	$394	75
29107 N 259th Ave	0.16mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,153 (+4%)	6mo	$925,000	$293	72
29120 N 257th Dr	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,887 (-5%)	5mo	$595,000	$206	72
29619 N 259th Ave	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,796 (-8%)	5mo	$755,000	$270	69
29921 N 258th Ave	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,866 (-6%)	12mo	$799,000	$279	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $213,744
• Equity at exit: $538,726

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $716,580
• Equity at exit: $1,161,782

Cash invested: $167,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 21.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,136
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-1,753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,498

Max offer price $288,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,414	-5% $-1,583	+0% $-1,753	+5% $-1,922	+10% $-2,091
Rent	-10% $-1,933	-5% $-1,843	+0% $-1,753	+5% $-1,663	+10% $-1,572
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,451	-0.5pp $-1,600	base $-1,753	+0.5pp $-1,908	+1.0pp $-2,065

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,500
• Closing costs: $17,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $598,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $639,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $639,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $639,000 2597-char remark
16. 2026-05-09
    price $669,000 2597-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $670,000 Active 2597-char remark
18. 2012-08-08
    soldstatus $75,000
19. 2005-06-15
    soldstatus $365,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,947 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,929/yr (+$161/mo · 95.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,497
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$2,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$17,396
• Taxable loss: −$32,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 117,540
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+75.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $639,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $669,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $670,000 ARMLS
• 2012-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,018 · -16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.