30167 W Aster Dr

Buckeye, AZ 85396

$399,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,521 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,679/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$109
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-757/mo
• Annual: $-9,086/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $111,997

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-757 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tartesso Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #461 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 355 students, 43% FRL); Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 954 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.