30167 W Aster Dr · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$399,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,521 sqft · Land · 174 Days on market

Built 2026 7,039 sqft lot $109/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover your dream home in the Manzanita at Teravalis community. The Raybun welcomes you with a bright foyer that opens to Bedroom 5 at the front of the home perfect for guests or a private home office. Just beyond is a full bathroom with a single vanity, followed by a split-level staircase with a switchback design, offering a graceful architectural feature and efficient use of space. Upstairs, the staircase opens to a spacious loft that faces the front of the home, offering a flexible space for work, play, or relaxation. The primary suite features serene backyard views, a private water closet, linen closet, dual vanity, and a walk-in shower with sliding glass doors.

Key facts

• Bright foyer
• Full bathroom
• Dual vanity

Tags

• BRIGHT FOYER
• FULL BATHROOM
• SPLIT-LEVEL STAIRCASE
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• PRIVATE WATER CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community with pool, pickleball, tennis courts, playground, and fitness center; Monthly association fee of $109 (association provides other items; see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof; Building area sourced from architect
• Exterior features: Desert front landscaping; Natural desert in back yard; Gravel/stone front; Fencing (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Pantry space
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity in bath; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-757 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tartesso Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #461 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 355 students, 43% FRL); Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,858 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-111,823
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-154,442
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$109
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,637

Max offer price $290,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-481	-5% $-619	+0% $-757	+5% $-895	+10% $-1,034
Rent	-10% $-969	-5% $-863	+0% $-757	+5% $-651	+10% $-546
Rate	-1.0pp $-556	-0.5pp $-655	base $-757	+0.5pp $-861	+1.0pp $-966

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $109 · $1,308/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $399,990
3. 2026-04-10
   price $425,715
4. 2026-03-24
   price $4,249,900
5. 2026-03-18
   price $452,525
6. 2026-03-18
   price $451,990
7. 2026-03-18
   price $452,525
8. 2026-03-16
   price $451,990
9. 2025-11-26
   price $449,990
10. 2025-11-05
    listed $450,525 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,571
• − Management: −$2,571
• − HOA: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$16,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,924
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $399,990 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $425,715 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $4,249,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $452,525 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $451,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $452,525 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $451,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $449,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $450,525 ARMLS